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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth British prime minister to occupy the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth premier in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”