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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.